per year, that would constitute a drought and, according to Egypt and Sudan, Ethiopia would have to release some of the water in the dams reservoir to deal with the drought. [8] Notably, the agreements give Egypt veto power over any upstream construction projects, including dams, but Ethiopia is not a party to these agreements and refuses to adhere to their provisions. [42] See Kallio, supra note 5 (describing how states bordering the Aral Sea collaborated to offset the effects of water loss). Perhaps even more consequential is the fact that this agreement granted Egypt veto power over future Nile River projects. [25] Typical solutions proposed in similar conflicts have emphasized the importance of cooperation and coordination between states. It reflects agreement reached at the November workshop, says Lienhard, who is also the Abdul Latif Jameel Professor of Water and Food at MIT. 2383, 2384 (2018), https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2090447917300837 (noting that the amount of water in the Nile River lost to evaporation will increase by 5.9% annually, which will limit the quantity and quality of water available to nations down river from GERD). Given the potential for conflict among the nations dependent upon this water, Blackmore adds, The international community needs to focus on the Nile as a matter of urgency., Prof. John Lienhard and Dr. Kenneth Strzepek write for The New York Times about the need for Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan to successfully share water from the Nile. They in turn contracted Alstom in January 2012 to supply turbines and generators for the project for 250 million euros ($333m). Would Ethiopias best bet be to instead pursuer other forms of renewable energy, such as geothermal and solar power? [16] See id. If the relevant parties can agree to these goals, the agreement, in the end, will need to include technical language that ensures equitable sharing of the Nile. Beyond access to drinkable water, states also use freshwater as a resource in agriculture and energy production. Enter your details here to receive your free Report. Both citizens and governments should be made part of the solution to the water-related conflicts that now threaten peace and security in the Nile Basin. This annotation will examine the dispute between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan, as well as the interests all sides have in the GERD. There has been huge secrecy on this project and thats a problem when you are building Africas biggest dam on the most important shared river in that part of the world, says Lori Pottinger, communications and Africa programme representative, at International Rivers (IR), a non-governmental organization (NGO) that has released a report about the potential environmental repercussions of the dam. Visit our privacy policy for more information about our services, how we may use, process and share your personal data, including information on your rights in respect of your personal data and how you can unsubscribe from future marketing communications. An annotation by Avi Mediratta, Staff Editor PDF version available here. [4] Bodies of freshwater that lie between two or more states oftentimes engender such conflicts. Ethiopia is aware of the risks of over-dependence on hydropower. [40] See Walaa Y. El-Nashar & Ahmed H. Elyamany, Managing Risks of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Egypt, 9 Ain Shams Engineering J. [18] Instability within Ethiopia due to the Tigray conflict has increased the likelihood that these states will not reach a diplomatic agreement before the anticipated opening date for the GERD.[19]. [28], III. They will begin work on at the end of 2013. As they consider this controversial issue, all 11 riparian countries should seek to improve relations among themselves beyond their relationship with the Nile, especially in mutually beneficial areas such as trade; educational and cultural exchanges; the management of natural resources, including water; dealing with threats to peace and security, including the suppression and prevention of terrorism and extremism; and confronting major challenges to economic growth and poverty alleviation, such as climate change, widespread illiteracy, and poor infrastructure. The African Union and the United States have both offered to mediate the dispute, but formal mediation between the two sides has not yet been attempted or agreed upon. [10] Ethiopia first announced the GERD, a proposed dam on the Blue Nile, in 2011. [8] Factbox: Nile River agreements and Issues, Reuters (July 27, 2009), https://www.reuters.com/article/us-egypt-nile-factbox-sb/factbox-nile-river-agreements-and-issues-idUSTRE56Q3MD20090727. These countries should return to the NBIs Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA), which was concluded in 2010, try to resolve the disagreements that caused Egypt and Sudan to decline to sign the CFA, and use it as a model for a future binding legal regime. In order to facilitate international cooperation that will allow greater prosperity and security for the entire region, one state must sacrifice some sovereignty over its natural resources. Cairo fears that once the dam is completed it will take two to three years, depending on rainfall, to fill up the 67 billion cubic metre reservoir, which could reduce the amount of water that flows into Egypt by 25%. Egypt, fearing major disruptions to its access to the Niles waters, originally intended to prevent even the start of the GERDs construction. [36] Ethiopia views the GERD as its opportunity to dramatically increase their prosperity, and has been unwilling to risk handing over the GERD, and their future, to a private entity that could potentially open the GERD to foreign control and influence. An online annotation by Jack Rogers, Staff Editor, Water is the most vital resource and access to freshwater is essential to the function of a modern state. The United States suspended aid to Ethiopia in 2020 in response to Ethiopias decision to move forward with the GERD without reaching an agreement with Egypt and Sudan. Introduction Since 1978,. Given agricultures importance to pro-poor economic growth, Egypt, which has significant experience and expertise in irrigation agriculture, can share some of that expertise with other countries in exchange for increased trade with them. In the end, all 11 riparian states must understand that the way forward calls for the establishment of a meaningful resource-sharing agreement, one that sees and recognizes the Nile River as a regional watercourse. For more on the background and history of these important relationships, see my book with former AGI Director Mwangi S. Kimenyi, Governing the Nile River Basin: The Search for a New Legal Regime., not be filled without a legally binding agreement, when the flow of Nile water to the dam falls below 35-40 b.c.m. [26] The dispute over the opening and operation of the GERD stands at odds with each of these principles,[27] as Ethiopia has total control over the dam and the land surrounding the dam, and remains unwilling to cede decision-making power to Egypt or Sudan. Such an understanding and appreciation of Egypts water vulnerability would help the riparians develop a water management protocol that can significantly enhance equitable and reasonable use while minimizing significant harm to downstream riparians. As freshwater supplies diminish globally, states may begin to compete more aggressively for the remaining supplies. The risks associated with a possible failure of this saddle dam may not have been fully appreciated, and must be carefully managed. A legacy of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, who died in August 2012, GERD it is set to be 145m tall and 1,800m (5,906ft) long, with a reservoir of 63 billion cubic metres (bcm), which is almost 1.3 times the annual flow of the Blue Nile (49 billion m/year). [27] See Jennifer Jacquet, David Frank & Christopher Schlottmann, Asymmetrical Contributions to the Tragedy of the Commons and Some Implications for Conservation, 5 Sustainability 1036, 1040 (2013), https://doi.org/10.3390/su5031036 (discussing the difficulties of achieving sustainability in circumstances where one party has control over a shared resource). The Nile-COM is the highest political and decisionmaking body of the NBI. [28] See G.A. Sudan is caught between the competing interests of Egypt and Ethiopia. Some scholars have argued that in situations of asymmetric control over shared resources, exemplified by the GERD case, there exist three preconditions to effective allocation and coordination of the resource: collective decision-making, graduated sanctions for bad actors, and a means for users to make rules governing the resource. [5] Where the body of water originates in one state and flows downstream into others, the upstream states decisions can have drastic implications for all downstream states. The report authors ascertained by chatting with workers and locals that, as of April 2012, house-to-house surveys on local communities had been conducted by the government for resettlement purposes, construction of worker-camp facilities were complete, mobilisation of construction materials had been started and access-road construction, clearing sites around the dam site, worker camps and access areas had all been completed. The groups final report, which was shared with the three concerned governments in early February, is being released publicly today. Recently, the tensions among Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile have escalated, particularly after Ethiopia announced that it had started filling the GERDs reservoir, an action contrary to Egypts mandate that the dam not be filled without a legally binding agreement over the equitable allocation of the Niles waters. At this point, though, the GERD is nearly completed, and so Egypt has shifted its position to trying to secure a political agreement over the timetable for filling the GERDs reservoir and how the GERD will be managed, particularly during droughts. Negotiation of the JCPOA, The September Statement by the ICC Prosecutor on Alleged U.S. War Crimes Marks a Historic Low, The Alien Tort Statute in the United States: U.S. [16] This newfound concern may lead Sudan to adopt a more hardline approach to negotiations with Ethiopia, in line with Egypt. MIT News | Massachusetts Institute of Technology, International experts analyze impacts of Ethiopian dam. Although conflict over the allocation of the waters of the Nile River has existed for many years, the dispute, especially that between Egypt and Ethiopia, significantly escalated when the latter commenced construction of the dam on the Blue Nile in 2011. By downloading this Report, you acknowledge that we may share your information with our white paper partners/sponsors who may contact you directly with information on their products and services. 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It can help the riparian states outline principles, rights, and obligations for cooperative management of the resources of the Nile. Although Egypt and Sudan are likely to resist efforts to include the other upstream riparians in the negotiations or to allow a regional organization, such as the NBI, to serve as an implementing organ, they must understand that the Nile River is a regional watercourse and its management must be approached from a regional perspective. That said, Pottinger points out that neighbouring Kenya is moving away from hydropower to geothermal, saying they can no longer rely on hydropower. Fifth, the ongoing accumulation of salts in the agricultural lands of the Nile Delta could accelerate rapidly; additionally, the GERD will enable Sudan to increase irrigation withdrawals upstream, further reducing the water available to Egypt. He says that the group was carefully selected to include top experts on water resources engineering and economics and on the Nile Basin, and was charged with reviewing the current state of technical knowledge on the GERD and its potential downstream impacts. Such a meaningful resource-sharing agreement should not only resolve the conflict over water-use rights among the riparian states, but it should help define concepts such as equitable and reasonable use and significant harm, which have been used by the downstream states in their criticisms of the GERD. As Ethiopia powers ahead with its Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, experts and NGOs are warning about the environmental and geopolitical backlash it may trigger. The meeting also included observers from Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia. Our services are intended for corporate subscribers and you warrant that the email address submitted is your corporate email address. Section II examines the GERD dispute as a Tragedy of the Commons in which Ethiopia has control over a shared finite resource that all sides have an interest in. One question that keeps coming up is: Will Ethiopia be willing to release enough water from the reservoir to help mitigate a drought downstream? [37], If the parties fail to reach a diplomatic solution, a potentially worse series of consequences may arise. [6] Interested parties expect the GERD to have a drastic impact on the freshwater supplies of Sudan and Egypt in the short term, and to raise longer-term concerns over water management in the event of a drought. There are fears GERD may be a tool for Ethiopia to claim back the Nile after 90% of its flow was given priority to Sudan and Egypt in an agreement dating back to the 1920s. The reports authors urge greater coordination between Egypt and Ethiopia to ensure water is shared fairly during periods of reduced flows.. [39] Additionally, both Sudan and Egypt have concerns over how much water Ethiopia would release from the GERD in the event of a drought. Please enter a work/business email address. Introduction When a defective, An annotation by Nicolas F. Runnels, Staff Editor PDF version available here. Ethiopias Blue Nile Dam is an opportunity for regional collaboration, The promise of modern services in traditional economies, Summer readings on cash transfers and social protection, Leapfrogging is rare: Technology upgrading by firms is mostly continuous. Although talks chaired by President Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa on behalf of the African Union have resolved many issues associated with the filling of the GERDs reservoir, there is still no agreement on the role that the dam will play in mitigating droughts. [7] Ongoing cooperation efforts and negotiations between the three countries over the past decade have highlighted challenges which may only become more common as global access to freshwater continues to diminish. However, as a result of the ability and willingness of Ethiopians at home and abroad to invest in the dam project, the government was able to raise a significant portion of the money needed to start the construction of the GERD. [12] Egypt obtains 95% of its water from the Nile River, and Egyptian leadership has expressed concern over Ethiopia having unregulated power to control how much water flows to Sudan and Egypt on the Nile. The top stories of the day delivered to you every weekday. The decisions that this group renders must be binding on all riparian states. When the disputing parties are sovereign states, the conflict may intensify. According to present plans, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) now under construction across the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia will be the largest hydroelectric dam in Africa, and one of the 12 largest in the world. Climate change is making it harder for experts to assess what movement a river will have in the future, because it is hard to predict the rain flow. Egypt had asked the UNSC to push the three countries to adhere to their obligations in accordance with the rules of international law in order to reach a fair and balanced solution to the issue of the GERD. Egypts repeated references to the rules of international law is part of an effort to maintain its so-called natural and historical rights that were established and reaffirmed by the 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty and 1959 Agreement between Egypt and Sudan, respectivelytreaties many of the other involved parties reject as anachronistic and untenable. A credit line must be used when reproducing images; if one is not provided Even as several economies tread the path to recovery, the surge in COVID-19 cases and emergence of new variants, coupled with geopolitical tensions, will continue to cloud the global outlook. Italian construction company Salini has been awarded a $4.8bn contract to build the dam and Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation contracted the military-run Metals & Engineering Corporation (METEC) to build the electro-mechanical works. Given the fact that the conflict between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan over the GERD seems to be among the most pressing issues in the region, it might be advisable for emphasis to be placed on securing a trilateral agreement that secures the peace between these three countries first. We do know that Ethiopia is already seeing longer droughts and worse floods. Perhaps the biggest question concerning the new dam is how Ethiopia will manage the process of filling its huge reservoir, whose capacity equals more than a years flow of the Blue Nile. Heidi Vella asks the question: should Ethiopia give up on Africa's biggest dam before it's too late? Massachusetts Institute of Technology77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA, USA. The COVID-19 crisis triggered one of the worst peacetime recessions globally. Climate change is such a big unknown. [17] Ethiopia wants to come to an agreement with both countries on legally nonbinding guidelines. She adds: They have so many other ways to get electricity in Ethiopia and regionally for example, microhydro, solar, geothermal and wind. Founded in 1968 with the aid of a Ford Foundation Grant, the New York University Journal of International Law and Politics features articles on international legal topics by leading scholars and practitioners, as well as notes, case comments, and book annotations written by Journal members. Post (Oct. 15, 2020, 1:29 P.M.), https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2020/grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-egypt-nile/(outlining Egypts opposition to the GERD). New York University Journal of International Law and Politics (JILP) is a student-run online publication devoted to commentary on contemporary issues in international and comparative law. Fourth, the hydropower generated from the GERD exceeds Ethiopias current domestic power market, and it will therefore need to be sold outside Ethiopia. Younger says: Geothermal is more compatible with local community development than large-scale hydro. Climate change has also rendered water increasingly scarce. [20] Natural resources, including water and biodiversity, are subject to overexploitation when humans use them to their individual advantage without considering the good of society.[21] As climate change makes certain natural resources, such as water, more scarce, further issues are likely to unfold. Similarly, both the final agreement between the riparian states for the allocation of the water and resources of the Nile should include a dispute resolution mechanism. Egypt and Ethiopia need to formulate a plan for coordinating the operation of these two dams, so as to equitably share Nile waters during periods of reservoir-filling and prolonged drought. Although cooperation among the three states would likely lead to the best outcome, the parties may face difficulty finding common ground. [2] See Grace Perry, The Futures of Water, Chicago Magazine (Jan. 15, 2021, 10:46 AM), https://www.legalbluebook.com/bluebook/v21/rules/18-the-internet-electronic-media-and-other-nonprint-resources/18-2-the-internet (explaining how water futures will allow cities and farmers to hedge against rising water prices in California in the event of a drought). Similar issues have already unfolded in other parts of the world,[42] and will continue to arise elsewhere as the impacts of climate change intensify. Egypt and Sudan face serious concerns that, if Ethiopia does not manage the dam with consideration for their interests, they could suffer severe harm to the quality and quantity of water that they receive from the Blue Nile. Although Khartoum initially opposed the construction of the GERD, it has since warmed up to it, citing its potential to improve prospects for domestic development. After the reservoir fills up, there is no guarantee that Egypt will maintain its present share of the water, US global security consultancy Stratfor told the media recently. Second, the upstream riparian states must recognize and accept Egypts near total dependence on the waters of the Nile River. Though the agreement is preliminary, it marks a significant step forward. What Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia must overcome to all benefit from the Grand Renaissance Dam. The 1929 and 1959 Nile Waters Agreement allocates 55bcm/year to Egypt and 18bcm/year to Sudan and 10bcm/year to account for evaporation at High Aswan dam which adds up to the total annual flow of the Nile, leaving Ethiopia with 0 (ZERO). The idea was to give advice, and do it impartially, Lienhard says. Since construction began in 2011, very little information has been released about GERD. Third, Egypt should abandon continued references to its so-called natural historical rights (i.e., the water rights granted Egypt by the 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty and the 1959 Agreement between Egypt and Sudan). In that light, Egypt should minimize trips to Washington, D.C., New York, and Brussels, and instead use its diplomatic resources to improve its relations with the other riparian states. Report from conference at MIT addresses potential effects of huge construction project. (stating that Ethiopia filling the GERD by July 2021 is a direct threat to Sudans national security). Methods that make a machine-learning models predictions more accurate overall can reduce accuracy for underrepresented subgroups. 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[40] Additionally, Egypt has already threatened to take military action against Ethiopia to disable or destroy the GERD if it is opened before the parties agree to a diplomatic solution, and the opening of the dam without an agreement could also lead to a larger conflict between Ethiopia and Egypt arising from any Egyptian military incursion.[41]. Gordon Dam, in Tasmania, Australia, is another huge hydro dam. I. I. Nevertheless, Egypt must not use sympathy for its water vulnerability as a weapon to frustrate the efforts of the other riparians to secure an agreement that is balanced, fair, and equitable. The 1959 agreement allocated all the Nile Rivers waters to Egypt and Sudan, leaving 10 billion cubic meters (b.c.m.) for seepage and evaporation, but afforded no water to Ethiopia or other upstream riparian statesthe sources of most of the water that flows into the Nile. These actions range from outright invasion from 1874 to 1876; to backing and arming separatist movements; to providing Somalia with the armaments during the Ogaden War in 1978 (when Somalia invaded Ethiopia). However, unlike in the typical Tragedy of the Commons scenario in which individuals have equal access to the common-pool resource, the conflict over the GERD presents a situation in which one state has disproportionate control over the commons. Thus, it is only through cooperation that Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan, and the other riparians can peacefully resolve conflicts over the Nile and achieve the type of water use that will contribute significantly to regional economic and human development. The Nile Waters Agreements of 1929 and 1959 between Egypt and Sudan grant those countries the exclusive right to use all of the water of the Nile River that flows between them. There were reports at the end of last year that the dam was 14% complete, but in terms of construction, little has been officially released. Egypt has also escalated its call to the international community to get involved. [11] Egypt has, until recently, acted as the primary opponent to the dams construction. (describing how the construction of the GERD has led to diplomatic conflict between the states of Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt as the latter two states have expressed concerns over the GERD decreasing their water supply).
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